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Nikola Danaylov on Review the Future Podcast: What Do Experts Think About the Singularity?

Socrates on Review the FutureA few weeks ago I got interviewed on Review the Future podcast. Co-hosts Ted Kupper and Jon Perry did a great job in putting me on the spot and I enjoyed talking to them very much. So, if for once you are  interested in having me as “the man with the answers” then check out their synopsis below and listen to the audio interview above:

linked inIn today’s podcast we are joined by Nikola Danaylov, host of the popular Singularity 1 on 1 podcast, and a man who has interviewed 170 experts about singularity related topics. After establishing the meaning of the term singularity, we discuss the wide range of opinions held by thinkers in the field. We learn that although there is no single consensus. there are some clusterings of opinion, a few of which fall upon disciplinary lines. Nikola reveals that after doing his show for five years, he is less convinced the singularity will happen then he used to be. After walking through the various routes that could get us to a singularity, we discuss the validity of accelerating returns and the need for diversity in the future. Finally, we conclude by considering the current state of the futurist community.

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  • CM Stewart

    A starkly well-balanced interview, thank you.

    Regarding personal jetpacks and flying cars:

    We have the technology for personal flying jetpacks, and several prototypes are out there. Jetpacks just aren’t widespread, mercifully. Relying on un-enhanced human ability to safely navigate personal jetpacks on a large scale would be disastrous, I believe.

    What is your criteria for a “flying car”? A small vehicle which can drive on land as well as fly in the air? I thought we already had those. But again, to expect their use to be as common as “land only” cars would be foolish, for the same reason I stated for the widespread use of personal jetpacks.

    I realize the above are representative examples of so-called “stalled” technology, but I suggest not every technology has a smooth increasing curve, but rather, the combined sum of technologies has a such a curve.

  • I didn’t mean to say we can’t do the calculations. What I was saying instead is that there are a number of elements related but not limited to supporting human astronauts and sending them to and safely back from the Moon. A lot of that science and knowledge has been lost and has to be rediscovered afresh. Furthermore, we need the respective rockets with an appropriate carrying capacity and range. And as you can see by the multiple launch failures of the past year – 3 blowouts in 8 months so far, we are not really in the safe range at all. Let alone launching a mission to beyond the Moon at this time. So, as I was saying we can certainly do it in a few years again. Just not today.

  • xvl260

    If EUV pans out, then we’ll see another 3 more node shrinks (10nm > 7nm > 5nm), after that it’s very uncertain. Intel has came out and said they can do 10nm without EUV, so we have at least 1 more node shrink. With the recent NAND and ram (HBM) moving to 3D, I think some type of 3D CPU architecture will be possible in 6-8 years (assuming 2 years per node shrink) just as the 2D CPU node shrink runs into physics limitations.

  • This was a good interview actually! I’m getting pretty bearish on new podcasts but I will give a few more of their episodes a listen…

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