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Matt Swayne

A Christmas Carol: A Visit From The Post-Singularity Future

December 24, 2010 by Matt Swayne

Scrooge cowered on his knees. The visits of the first two ghosts shook him to the core of his miserly being. He knew the Ghost of Christmas Future was next. Scrooge, after all, had been reading Malthus.

An unmistakable thud of a piano chord — probably an  E major, with reverb set on foreboding — sliced through the chilly air of Scrooge’s dark quarters. Scrooge winced. He opened his eyes slowly, expecting to see a tall, ominous, black robed figure, most likely armed with a scythe, or at the very least a sickle. Instead, he saw a rather diminutive man wearing wire-rimmed glasses and holding a palm-sized device in his hand.

“Hi. My name is Ray Kurz…”

He suddenly stopped his introduction.

“Oh, wait. That’s not the line. Let me try again.” the spirit cleared his throat. “I am the Ghost of Christmas Fuuuuuture,” he spoke in a mildly mocking baritone.

“My future?” Scrooge asked.

“Well, in the future, it’s really hard to delineate between the personal and the collective in an exponential destiny.”

Scrooge furled his brow.

“What? Anyway. Ghost of Christmas Future. It is you who I fear most of all.”

“Why? The future’s not so bad. In fact, we’ve solved a lot of problems.”

“Wait. Aren’t you going to lecture me on how my covetousness has impoverished society and instill fear in me about how my skinflint ways have robbed me of a meaningful existence?”

The Ghost of Christmas Future chuckled, “Not at all. I mean, there’s no need for greed in the future. The scarcity society has totally been replaced. Check it out.”

Instantly, Scrooge and the spirit were transported to the streets that once crisscrossed Scrooge’s bleak, sketchy neighborhood. Instead, the streets were clean.

“That’s called quantum teleportation,” the spirit whispered in Scrooge’s ear. “Not a bad little parlor trick, huh?”

Autonomous vehicles zipped along London’s streets with passengers laughing and checking out video messages on their “portable cyphering blackboards,” as Scrooge dubbed them. Other folks strolled through the streets. They looked healthy, well-dressed and well-fed.

“You see, Scrooge, with molecular manufacturing, people have access to the best clothes and best products, quickly and cheaply. You can even make food! The new economy is one based on abundance, not lack.”

As if to prove his point, the spirit snapped his finger and the two were suddenly facing a stately mansion.

“Is this mine?”

“No. No. This is the home of Bob Cratchit.”

“My penniless bookkeeper.”

“Not penniless anymore. And not a bookkeeper. In fact, once automation forced most manual bookkeepers out of work, Cratchit created a social network for former workers to crowdsource for new job opportunities. It IPOed a few years ago. I think the market cap is, like, $6 billion.”

Scrooge saw Bob Cratchit’s wife in the window. She stood next to a three-dimensional replication machine, printing out mittens for her extended brood. Just then, a young boy sprinted by. Even though Scrooge and the spirit could not be perceived by the young man, the suddenness of the approach shocked the miser.

“And who was that hooligan?” Scrooge wondered.

“That was Cratchit’s youngest, Tiny Tim.”

“But it couldn’t be. Tiny Tim is a cripple.”

“OK. So, first off, we don’t say ‘cripple’ in the future. It’s better to say, ‘handicapped.’ Or, even better, ‘artificially enhanced’ You see, Tiny Tim was able to regenerate a new leg.”

With another snap of the spirit’s fingers, Scrooge and the ghost landed in a grassy field. A few brown leaves rattled along the ground, being pushed by a howling wind. Tombstones and monuments flanked the two lone souls.

The Ghost of Christmas Future pointed firmly at a tombstone at the edge of the cemetery.

“Oh, no, spirit. Say it isn’t so.”

The spirit pointed even more forcefully. Scrooge kneeled and then crawled toward the tall, dark tablet. He strained his eyes to read the inscription. It wasn’t an inscription at all. It was a sign. “Coming Soon. Longevity Institute. Research Center for Extending Human Life Indefinitely.” Scrooge rubbed his eyes and looked again.

“No death anymore, Scrooge, my good man. You’ve got an infinite time to make amends for your rather spotty past. Decrease the surplus population, indeed.”

Scrooge woke the next morning, excited with the prospects of an exponentially growing, prosperous, healthy future. He never worried about scrimping a few quids, but instead invested heavily in the biotech and quantum computation field. He vowed to become as good a friend, as good a master, and as good a transhuman, as the good old city knew.

About the Author:

Matt Swayne is a blogger and science writer. He is particularly interested in quantum computing and the development of businesses around new technologies. He writes at Quantum Quant.

Filed Under: Op Ed, What if? Tagged With: Matt Swayne, singularity

How to Fund the Future: Enter The Vision Capitalists

December 14, 2010 by wpengine

Photo by Aussiegall

Two bits of news recently passed by without excessive fanfare, but these seemingly unconnected stories had huge implications about how the future is being funded, or underfunded, as the case may be.

First, there was news that Google bid $6 billion to buy Groupon and, more astoundingly, Groupon reportedly rejected the offer.

Groupon is essentially a coupon company. Not trying to dismiss the value of Groupon — it’s an interesting (though not novel) business model, but in the big scheme of things, how important is Groupon to the future? I mean, what would biotech companies working on human longevity projects do with $6 billion? How far would a few billion bucks go to fund a Reprap-like project? Could a quantum computer company use $6 billion?

Groupon has joined several other companies as darlings of the current venture capital pantheon. Zynga, the company that created Facebook fame, Farmville, is valued at $4 billion. I think we can all agree that the future of humanity is roughly equal to a good game of Farmville. Twitter, which is used mainly to show your friends how snarky you can be about Sarah Palin and discuss the merits of your bagel breakfast, is worth billions more.

Billions of dollars have been poured into companies with iffy monetization models that are products for, at best, marketing and, at worst, wasting time. Is all lost, then? Will the future be merely finding new ways to tweet, friend, and help people buy virtual cows?

This leads me to the good news of the week. Well, it might not be good news, but it’s a sign of good news.

The Thiel Foundation, headed by entrepreneur and billionaire investor, Peter Thiel, sponsored the Audacious Optimism dinner. About 200 people, of the wealthy and influential sort, attended the dinner and heard from the heads of eight companies that are researching and creating technologies which will change our future: molecular manufacturing, artificial intelligence, space travel, and advanced Farmville tactics. (I made the last one up.)

I’d add people like Steve Jurvetson, of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, to the list of visionaries, too. Jervetson has helped fund D-Wave, the first quantum computing company. This group of funders, I believe, represent the core of a new type of investing group that I call vision capitalists. Vision capitalists are a step beyond typical venture capitalists and angel investors.

Venture capitalists tend to follow the herd; vision capitalists lead the herd. In fact, they might even start the herd.

Venture capitalists look for an exit plan; vision capitalists are in for the long haul.

Most importantly, vision capitalists know that being a pioneer isn’t always easy.

Here‘s how Jim O’Neill, of the Thiel Foundation, puts it:

“The future will not take care of itself, our success is not inevitable, and it is your responsibility to help craft a wonderful future. Neglect this task, and there will be plenty of consequences to go around.”

About the Author:

Matt Swayne is a blogger and science writer. He is particularly interested in quantum computing and the development of businesses around new technologies. He writes at Quantum Quant.

Filed Under: Op Ed Tagged With: Matt Swayne

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Ethos: “Technology is the How, not the Why or What. So you can have the best possible How but if you mess up your Why or What you will do more damage than good. That is why technology is not enough.” Nikola Danaylov

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